Monday, May 14, 2012

Think of economic growth as the result of two gears operating together—low tax rates and sound money

Consider this quote from a must read op/ed by Herman Cain in today’s WSJ.  It really is this simple: 
"Think of economic growth as the result of two gears operating together—low tax rates and sound money. When both gears are fully engaged, the economy moves forward."
"Low taxes" is not a conspiracy by the rich to exploit the poor and disadvantaged.   

"Low taxes and sound money" is the only way the little guy has a chance to compete with Big Biz, Big labor, Big finance or Big government, to name just a few of the "Bigs" that the little guy faces in his day to day life.

The idea that government is the only possible solution to social inequality is a fantasy myth.

Income and social inequality is a fact of life.  That is where we need to start.

Income inequality is not an evil per se.  This is not to say that all income inequality is created equal.  it is not.  There are times when income inequality gets stretched to dangerous levels, when the 1% control 99% of the wealth and the 99% live hard scrable lives.

The cause of such gross inequality isn't the "free market" run amok.  No.  The cause of distorted income inequality as we see in LATAM and Africa and increasingly in China and the US is not a natural result of so called "free markets."  the cause of such inequality is more often than not well intended government policy.   Other times the cause of distorted income distribution is pure greed when Big money, Big business, Big finance and/or Big labor conspire with government to tilt the playing field in the direction of themselves (often in the name of doing so for the common good).

When we put government in charge of leveling the playing field or regulating industries or improving social justice, the results are predictably the opposite:  special interests inevitably coopt the legislative process in order to create an unbalanced playing field in favor of their interests.  When "markets fail" inevitably as a consequence of special interests co-opting public policy, guess who gets blamed?  You guessed it:  "unfettered capitalism."  meanwhile, the greedy politicians and special interests do everything they can to hide their complicit rent seeking behavior that bleeds public resources and channels them to the "Bigs" (i.e. big finance, big labor, big biz, big banking, big energy, big military, big welfare,  big environmentalist lobby, etc. etc. etc).  Big government and Big special interest groups are the hidden cause behind so called "market failure." 

The only level playing field is the level playing field of the law and of treatment under the law that protects private property rights of each individual not matter how rich or how poor.  Big government cannot fix markets or level the so called playing field because inevitably such well intended policy aims become hijacked by special interests.

Markets don't "fail" in the common sense way we think about "failure" in our every day lives.   I like to think of "markets" as being "human."  they screw up and make mistakes, but there is no way to "fix" inherent human "error making".  Markets do possess some unattractive features -- just like we humans do:  is it possible to eradicate mistakes from the human condition?  progressive might think we have the moral duty to at least try.  I don't agree.  I believe it is much better to start with the assumption that we humans are fundamentally flawed.   let's start with humility rather than hubris.  we should have the same realistic assumptions and assessment for markets.  markets will never be perfect.  we need to learn to live and love markets for these "human" traits rather than try to treat the mistakes and try to fix them one by one.  

the economy will never be a programable perfect machine anymore than we humans ever will be.  and this is not some dubious analogy.  the modern economy is just as natural and "human" as we humans. 

  there are business cycles and there is creative destruction process that causes stress for individuals and firms, and there are going to be industrial accidents and pollution, and there will be bank runs on occassion and asset bubbles and busts.  These are all natural features of markets NOT market failures per se. 

Just like an earthquake is a feature -- not a failure -- of the earths plate techtonic system, a business cycle is a feature -- not a failure of the market economy.  the market economy and the earths plate techtonic system are natural sub-systems of the larger earth system.  the economy is NOT designed or invented by humans.  the economy organized spontaneously and emerges.  it is the resutl of human action.  yes.   but the economy is not the result of human design.  this is a huge point.  it is plain old hubris to assume we can design, regulation and engineer "market failures" out of the economy without at the same time doing the same to "market" miracles.  Such as sustainable productivity gains over time, what enables standard of living gains for society.  Productivity is the life blood of modern society.  if we fix features of the eocnomy we identify as market failures, we will simultaneously reduce the dynamism of the economy and its ability to sustain productivity gains over time.  

there are NO FREE lunches.    we think about managing our lives around earthquakes by understanding them better and learning how to live with them through construction technology.  we don't try to eliminate earthquakes!!!  if some day a genie came out of a bottle and said he could eliminate earthquakes from now on, would you say ok -- do it.  eliminating earthquakes would save thousands of lives destroyed each year, but at the same time if we didn't have earthquakes, the earths crust would not be able to cycle over millenium and life on earth would cease to exist as we know it now.  There are trade offs in life.  it is a well known scientific fact that the cycling of the earth's crust is one of the critical features our earth has that has allowed it to develop intelligent life!!!  get rid of earth quakes, you get rid of the very plate tectonic system that is a pre-condition of intelligent life evolving on earth.  

get rid of income inequality or business cycles or industrial accidents and there is no modern economy.  if we set our sights a little lower and admit we can't comlpetely fix these features of the modern economy, but we have the moral obligation to try.  that is like saying we can sort of fix earth quakes or that even if we know we can't we should try.  No way jose.  the only rational option is for us to continue learning new ways to live with earthquakes, and forget trying to "fix them."  fixing income inequality is like fixing earthquakes -- there is no physical way to do it part way.  and if we pretend there is a part-way solution, we are only deluding ourselves and sowing a cascade of negative unintended consequences throughout the system.

the optimal solution is to learn to live with natural features of free markets we erroneously call market failures, just as we know we must learn to live with natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, typhoons you name it.  when government pretends that they can under-write the risk of living with natural disasters, like by providing flood insurance in flood plains, we know what happens then, too.  New Orleans.   

When government tries to solves so called "market failures" they unwittingly make things even worse by turning what are merely natural features of markets into systemic failures!!  Simple single (or regional) asset bubbles and busts (like tulips or real estate or tech stocks) turn into economy-wide multi-asset booms and Great Depressions as we saw in the 1920s and 1930s.  without the Fed, we don't get the Roaring 20s OR the Great Depression!!!  Prior to the Fed being established in 1913 we had cyclical "panics" but never a Great Depression or an era of prosperity as in the 1920's.  Prosperity fueled by central bank easy money is followed by Depression like the night follows day.

We are in the process of trying to avoid a Great Depression after a similar period of excessive easy money in the 2000's turned to bust in 2008.  all of the experts say the cause of the Great Depression was overly tight money by the Fed.  we are told if only the Fed turned to ultra loose monetary policy in the 1930s we would have avoided the great depression.  While this is most likely true, we have no idea what the unintended side effects will be of the ultra loose monetary policy used to avoid a Great Depression II after the Great Credit Crunch of 2008 followed the Lehman collapse -- and the Fed treated it and continues to treat with ultra loose money?  We have no idea if the cure to the money bubble bust will end up being worse than the disease.  There are no free lunches.  Yet we have this idea that we can enjoy easy money bubbles, and then when the inevitable bust comes, we can just use the Fed to reverse the bust, so its effects are minimized and doesn't last too long.  

This is the experiemenbt playing out currently.  Progressives claim that the Fed is holding society backthat China will face in coming decades will be one more example why a system based around central planning may enjoy rapid prosperity for 20 or 30 years, but eventually faces constraints -- and must pay back in spades the wasted public resources used to fuel superficially "wonderful" eocnomic results.

 and impoverishing the middle class by not easing money even more.   since when is the cause of a boom / bust cycle also the painless cure?  where is talk and debates of trade offs?  we are told by progessives that to believe in trade offs is to believe in Santa Clause or maybe God.  how ridiculous they say, that society must "pay" for a period of prosperity fueled by easy money.  They derisively call the austrian business cycle theory, which focuses on the easy money underlying cause of boom/busty cycles, as the "hang over" theory.

IN THE real world in which we live, there are no free lunches and painless policy options that policy makers can use to solve so called market failures.  if the government could really solve market failure, then we'd be living in utopia.  What we see is that government interventions can solve problems in the short term, but these problems manifest and become larger and ultimately grow like a cancer, eventually, killing the host, that at one time seemed to be doing so well.  this is the story of the Eurozone and of Germany and even of the Scandinavian countries that are supposed to be the models of enlightened social welfare capitalism.  Sorry, such schemes are not affordable or sustainable.    the massive political and economic stresses and strains
in the real world, we must deal with natural features of markets and adjust to them and teach our children to be flexible and creative and able to adjust to unexpected shocks and disasters rather than trying to eliminate the unexpected and the unfair and the unequal from society.  forget fixing natural features of markets.  government can solve such "features" but they do so at the cost of sowing even worse underlying risks and fault lines into the structure of society at large.  at the extreme, if we want to get rid ofincome inequality the solution is easy.  put the government in charge.  the result will be like USSR and Mao China and North Korea:  disaster, famine, failure.  Try to navigate a middle way between socialism and unfettered capitalism and the results will be less dramatic but ultimately will be the same.  

the government can’t level the playing field any more it can get rid of business cycles or monopoly power or fix poverty or provide universal health care and education.  When the government gets in the game of leveling the playing field, what always happens is big money co-opts the political process so the little guy gets in the end anyway screwed!!!

High taxes and easy money is THE conspiracy by elites who control public policy.   consider health insurance subsidies or college loans.  What these schemes do is increase demand for health care and secondary education, thus fueling price inflation.  price inflation makes it harder for middle class families to afford.  eventually, not only the "poor" but the middle class can't afford college or health insurance.  of course the market gets blamed, when in fact the market is poisoned by well intended public policy aimed at levelling the playing field, which ends up screwing everything up.

Elites on both sides of the political aisle benefit from well intended government policy.  Such elites include big labor, big finance (George Soros, Warren Buffet), big business (Bill Gates, CEO of GE), it includes top economic policy makers in BOTH parties – including the bi-partisan Goldman Sachs mafia – Geithner and before him Treasury Secretary Rubin, it includes the military industrial complex, and it includes the CEO’s of the big Wall Street investment banks, as well as commercial banks ANd last but not least it includes politicians in both major parties.  Dems and GOP leaders point fingers at each other to distract from the fact that both sides stay in power via big money, special interest group politics.   

please don't say campaign finance is the solution to special interest politics.  it is not.  get rid of government involvement in the micro managing the eocnomy, and the special interest groups will lose their r'aison detre.   special interest groups -- and politicians -- thrive by exploiting the nexus of big money and goverenment power over the economy.   politicians pursue policies favorable to special interests, the special interests group finance the politicians and everyone is happy, except for the poor slob paying indirect and direct taxes requried to fund the gravy train for politicians and special interests.   If we try to solve this problem directly with campaign finance reform, the results will be no better.  

incumbents are favored tremendously in a "equal playing field" environment.  There is no such thing as a level playing field in politics.  try to make it equal with campaign finance, and we will be stuck with a system that favors incumbent politicians, who then can exploit special interest group big money politics in some way that circumvents the rules, but allows the politicians to acrue more and more power over time, because insurgent politicians are disallowed campaign financing by the very system that is ostensibly designed to "level" the political playing field.

the only way to truly level the playing field is to disallow government from picking winners and losers, or from "solving" market features that we call failures.  Politicians have two choiced to fix market features or failures.  if the problem truly is a market failure, chances are it was caused by a cascade of previous well intended policy initiatives aimed at solving some other problem.  trace the cause of the market failure to public policy -- and unwind the public policy BEFORE adding more well intended public policies which are destined to create a new cascade of negative unintended consequences ... and sow seeds for a new generation of so called market failures.   The other option for policy makers, if the problem they are trying to fix is a market feature, that appears to be a market failure (e.g. income inequality, business cycles, limited access to college) is to provide limited local tools for individuals to adjust to such "problems" rather than trying to fix the "problem" directly.  When government tries to fix income inequality through progressive taxation for example, the inevitable result is a mis allocation of scarce resources over time that reduces the underlying dynamism of the economy.  There are no free lunches.  If we want to reduce income inequality, we must face a trade off in terms of lower overall productivity gains for the economy, which means lower standards of living for wage earners over time. 

"Big money Power elites" also includes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, which was established as a back stop for big banks and big finance – and only sold to the American public as a mechanism for protecting the little guy against unpredictable economic cycles.
Consider what the Fed has accomplished since it was established in 1913.  Inflation has gone up by over 2000%!!!  The dollar has lost 95% of its value!!!  We’ve had the Great Depression.  So much for maintaining economic and financial stability.  we’ve had the great inflation of the 1970s and the Great Recession of 2009 – and the on going chapter of economic malaise that I expect will continue for a decade or more!!
Both the Dems and GOP point fingers while Rome burns.  Rome is the perfect analogy because Roman began to decline as soon as Emperors figured out how to debase the currency, which was required to pay for the modern welfare/warfare state of the time!!!  sound familiar???!!
This op/ed by Herman Cain includes several other simple yet profound quotes:
“The more complex a society, the more it depends on fixed and rigorously reliable standards. A dollar should be defined—as it was prior to 1971 under the postwar Bretton Woods system—as a fixed quantity of gold.”
What Herman fails to mention is that FDR confiscated all gold and changed this fixed value.  Progressives claim this was what got the US out of depression and progressives such as Krugman are screaming for the same today.  how are we to believe that what got us into this mess is also supposed to get us out??  Easy money got us into the mess.  Easy money led to all the proximate causes of the recent crisis.  Without easy money supplied by the Fed we DO NOT get the perfect storm that the progressive claim was an once in a lifetime confluence of market failures combined with too little regulation.
Systemic risk isn’t random or a confluence of unrelated factors that just happen out of the blue.  Isn’t it much more plausible that all of these symptoms of market failure were all cause by the VERY SAME underlying cause:  ie. easy money.
Easy money promoted excess risk taking, it make regulators blind to risk because they saw strong fundamentals, it fueled property bubble.  deriviatives are blamed but derivative didn’t cause the propety bubble, they just facilitated easy money going into the property bubble!!! 
Progressives say easy money may have been one contributing factor but it can’t explain everything.  Why not?  I can trace every single so called market failure back to easy money or some other well intended government intervention in the economy, including the massive subsidies government made to encourage home ownership!!! 
The market did NOT fail us.  We failed the market.  And then when the market failed, we just blamed the market again and looked to the government to fix what they screwed up in the first place.
Many of the so called experts denigrate the gold standard and say we can’t go back.  if you study the history of the gold standard, what you find is that The gold standard did not fail modern society.  We failed the gold standard.  Keep in mind that “we” went off the gold standard during the Civil War and before WWI.   During the periods the Western world went off the gold standard, such as during WWI, central banks printed money like there was no tomorrow!!!  It was this process of going off the gold standard, rationalized in order to pay for a war that was supposed to end all wars, that sowed the seeds for the 1920s boom and the Great Depression Bust, which sowed seeds for the rise of Hitler and fascism and led to WWII.   It wasn’t the gold standard per se that caused the Great Depression.  It was going off the gold standard in the first place.  Did we HAVE to go off the gold standard??  Politicians argued we did in order to pay for WWI.  The result was millions of soldiers dying in trenches in the most ghastly war in history.  What if policy makers didn’t have central bank printing presses to pay for War?  Think about that.
The problems we face are a result of going off the gold standard.  Policy makers say we can’t have a gold standard because the gold standard hamstrings policy makers from implementing counter cyclical economic policy. 
If we’ve learned anything over the past 100 years since the Fed was established is that policy makers need constraints rather than flexibility in pursuing economic policy.  flexibility gives policy makers the ability to pursue free lunch policies that come back to haunt society no matter whether we are talking about unaffordable welfare or warfare.  The left says if only we didn’t have a military, and the right says if only we didn’t have entitlement schemes, we would be fine.  The fact, is the left and right have both done deals with the devil to accommodate unaffordable spending on both welfare and warfare.  Now that we understand we can’t afford both, each side points the finger at the other. 
Conservatives are wrong that a massive military industrial complex is affordable or moral or necessary or non negotiable just as the Progressives are wrong and hypocritical for saying the same about the welfare industrial complex.  Each side uses these priorities as captive special interest groups that fund campaign war chests needed to maintain their hold on  political offices.
The little guys, the 99% are pawns in elites hold on power.  the answer is NOT higher taxes on the wealthy and more government solutions to what ails society.  The answer is a new concept of what level playing fields mean.  level playing fields should be viewed as equal treatment under the law, not equal outcomes.  Liberals hijacked the word Liberal and turned it into exactly the opposite of what it meaned when the term was coined in the 17th century.  Now we refer to classical liberals who argued for the sanctity of individual property rights and equal treatment under the law.  Modern liberals argue for equal social outcomes and level playing fields for all – and GUESS WHAT.  Such equal outcomes require government to run roughshod over individual property rights and equal treatment.  What modern liberals support is unequal treatment for minorities and the idea that property rights don’t matter at all.  what matters is equal outcomes.  And what is required for public sector to deliver equal outcomes is to ignore private property rights!!!  Modern liberals turned the world view of the classical liberals upside down.   
Modern liberals and progressives assert that what matters is outcomes not process.  what classical liberals argue what matters is the sanctity of rights and the equal treatment of all under “the law.”  Classical liberals understand peace and prosperity in modern society resulting from free trade – which by definition benefits both the buying and the seller – otherwise the trade can’t be made.  Modern liberals have turned this idea upside down by arguing that government is the only unbiased entity that can ensure peace and prosperity and equality (in terms of outcomes).  How should government do this?  Government MUST use ends justify the means logic in order to inject good outcomes into society.  What this means is that process and property rights and equal treatment under the law go out the window.  Such ideas are viewed as silly and overly naïve and unworkable in a modern society.  The result is that government is given a license to do anything in the name of good intentions.  The inevitable result is that government MUST use force to ensure “good” and “equal” outcomes.  Progressives use other words to describe what government does.  But these words are all euphemisms for “force” in one way or the other.  One person’s rights are viewed as less important than someone else’s rights.  Take for example, progressive taxation schemes.  Or take subsidy schemes or entitlement schemes or anti-trust schemes or welfare schemes or bail out schemes --- all require the government to “enforce” or use force to ensure certain preferred outcomes.  In this way, public sector goals inject an ethic of might makes right into society.  It just matters who is in power.  whoever is in power decides what is right – and then might is rationalized.    Government is only an unbiased protector of the little guy in fairy tales and pie in the sky fantasies promoted by progressives.  Government is easily co-opted by BIG Money.  When government is given the job of making the world better for the little guy, inevitably what happens is the little guy gets screwed!!!
Is the world fair?  No. who says the government can or should make it fair.  Use the government to make the world fair or safe or more equal (welfare / entitlement) or use it to eliminate business cycles or use it to make us safe from foreign threats (via homeland security, military industrial complex) and you are asking for trouble with a capital T!!!.  Trouble, trouble, trouble.  Government cannot engineer outcomes in a complex society.  If it tries, what happens is the political process is highjacked by money interests and elites.
Elites used to be religious leaders.  Now elites are politicians and experts and academics and so called scientists all of whom are in collusion either directly or indirectly with BIG MONEY.  To claim otherwise is fantasy land.  Progressives say only conservatives are coopted by bug business and big money.  This may be true but for progressives to say they are not also corrupted by special interests is to be naïve to the extreme.  Progressives are using science as a bludgeon to reduce argument for political special interest supporters.   
This highlights a/the fatal flaw in direct democracy.  Tyranny of the majority is no less evil than tyranny of a minority or tyranny of an select elite.  Democracy is not inherently moral.  What is inherently moral is a society based on certain basic fundamental principles and rules that apply equally to EVERYONE.   institutions and law and social outcomes are emergent phenomena, they are not outcomes engineered by experts and policy makers. 
The solution to man-made Global warming cannot be more government top-down solutions.  Cooperation and public sacrifice and everyone coming together for a common cause IS AN EXCUSE for some authority to use might makes right authority that by defintion cannot be moral.   Progressives claim that governmetn must reduce might makes right in the world by reducing the influence of monopoly power and by redistributing income and by making the world safer for the little guy.  It is a contradiction in terms for government to inject such outcomes because doing so requires using the exact same might makes right logic that progressives argue government needs to solve.
Some companies will grow big.  There may be monopoly power at times.  income inequality is a fact of life.  so is pollution.  When man discovered fire, he also discovered pollution and waste and garbage.  Before fire, there was no such thing as “pollution” per se.  getting rid of pollution is easy:  reduce population and put government in control of all resource allocation.  That is also the best way to impoverish human society and deliver the mother of all human suffering. 
The answer to income inequality and pollution and business cycles and monopoly power and social problems is NOT going to come from government policies engineered to deliver certain outcomes or results.  Such problems will come from a bottom-up, process of trial and error that emerges naturally from a simple set of rules and moral principles that sanctify individual private property rights, freedom of trade and speech and that understand that social outcomes are emergent and beyond the direct control of well meaning public policy makers / elites.   
One of the founding principles of any society requires sound money.  the only reason we have to go off the gold standard is when policy makers decide that we can’t afford either war or welfare schemes that are unaffordable via direct taxation. The central bank provides a convenient buyer of last resort for public bonds used to raise money for public sector expenditure.   Politicians claim that the gold standard limits policy makers ability to fix the market and ensure it doesn’t’ run off the rails.  In fact, the only way the economy can truly run off the rails is with a central bank that doesn’t allow weak banks to fail and therefore ensures that systemic risks build up in the system as the weak remain bailed out, and thus remain a sort of cancer on the entire system.  Temporary stability ensured by central bank bailouts merely sows seeds for larger, systemic risk and a bigger bust sometime down the road.
There are no free lunches.  Reduced volatility in the short to medium term will be off set by larger volativlity in the longer term.  So we had 25 years of prospertiy since 1983.  So what?  Does that prove policy makers figured it out?  and that central banks are necessary instituion for “free markets”?
No.  recent developments mean that there is no such thing as a “free market” when we talk about a system with a central bank, lender of last resort.
Don’t let politicians fool you on either side of the political divide.  Dems love money printing and the central bank as a way to pay for the welfare complex.  And GOP loves money printing facilitated by the central bank as a way to pay for the military industrial complex. 
Both Dems and GOP love the central bank as the bailout mechanism for Big Finance.  Dems love big labor, welfare and entitlements, GOP loves military industrial complex, entitlements (even though they profess otherwise) and BOTH the Dems and GOP love BIG finance bailouts.
It is no coincidence that the Democrat Party’s economic policy elites come largely from Goldman Sachs!!! 
Let’s stop pointing fingers.
The Democrats and Republicans have created two narratives that seems as if the other side is the Devil.  In actual fact BOTH sides are more the same than different!!!  Each side creates a fiction why we should be scared to death if the other side takes control of the White House.  In actual fact, both sides are more similar than different.  The basic similarity is that both sides have created a system that requires a central bank to create the illusion that we live in a world of FREE LUNCHES.
The GOP would have us believe that a massive military industrial complex is affordable and moral and non-debatable. 
Our founding father’s inlcudine ( I think Jefferson and Madison warned of maintaining a large standing army; they argued correctly that we should mobilize the army during times of national emergencies and then reduce size after the threat is over.  This was our pattern until WWII!!! – and it worked just fine.  Have times changed???  I don’t believe they have.).
Conservatives scare monger about national security in an effort to maintain the industrial military complex, and liberals scaremonger about social welfare issues to maintain the welfare industrial complex.  Both complexes are unaffordable over the long term because once these complexes get up and running they grow and grow and grow and grow for a variety of reasons to complex to get  into here. 
What we need is low taxes and a dollar as good as gold.  If we committed to a dollar as good as gold, the political debate would change radically and FOR THE BETTER.  we’d be forced to talk about trade offs and affordability of programs.
The first central bank, the Bank of England was established to create an public entity that could purchase public bonds that were issued to pay for a war with France!!!  The history of central banks is the history of creating entities to pay for warfare or welfare that is beyond what is affordable through direct taxation!!!
The other reason central banks were created is to provide a bail out mechanism for Big Finance.  the myth was invented by political and financial elites that the economy was too unpredictable and subject to boom/bust such that a central bank was needed to keep the middle class and lower classes “safe” from economic turmoil.  In fact, the Fed was established because Big Finance and government wanted a way to ensure Big finance was protected from economic cycles.  This is a historical fact!!!

A conspiracy of Wall Street bankers and one prominent Senator designed and promoted the establishment of the Federal reserve during a secret meeting on Jeckyl Island, a resort for the uber wealthy!!!
The politicians and policy elites



  • May 13, 2012, 5:50 p.m. ET
Herman Cain: We Need a Dollar as Good as Gold
A gold standard is to the moochers and looters in government what sunlight and garlic are to vampires.
My 9-9-9 tax code replacement plan provoked enormous enthusiasm during my presidential campaign because it represents the largest transfer of power in the history of the republic. By instituting a 9% income tax, a 9% business tax, and a 9% national retail sales tax—and eliminating most of the remaining tax code (including the many hidden taxes built into the process of doing business)—we would simplify the system for everyone and rob politicians of their ability to use the code to manipulate economic activity.
But why stop there? Washington thwarts prosperity through more than the tax code. The present monetary system is an abysmal failure by any objective measure. As the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, I can say with firsthand experience that it is not the people of the Fed, but the actual structure, that needs reform. Our liberty and prosperity depend on it.
Think of economic growth as the result of two gears operating together—low tax rates and sound money. When both gears are fully engaged, the economy moves forward. When the gears become disengaged, the middle class suffers. That's why, as convinced as I am of the power of the 9-9-9 concept, we need sound money to go with it.
Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution grants power to Congress "to coin Money, [and] regulate the Value thereof." But for the last 40 years in Washington, regulate has meant manipulate, with the Federal Reserve raising and lowering interest rates and buying and selling assets at its own discretion. All of this manipulates the value of the dollar. We regulate time by making sure an hour is always a fixed quantity of minutes and a foot is always a fixed quantity of inches. The more complex a society, the more it depends on fixed and rigorously reliable standards. A dollar should be defined—as it was prior to 1971 under the postwar Bretton Woods system—as a fixed quantity of gold.
However imperfect a gold standard may be, it remains the best among all alternatives. The empirical data for both the classical gold standard, which I favor—and even the flawed "gold-exchange" standard, as we had under the Bretton Woods system—are impressive. Economic growth was stronger, unemployment rates lower, the price level more stable, and recessions less frequent and less severe than under the present system.
I realize the Washington establishment goes ballistic at this suggestion. Gold is kryptonite to big-spending politicians. It is to the moochers and looters in government what sunlight and garlic are to vampires. The American people are another story. Nearly half (44%) support a return to a gold standard, according to an October 2011 Rasmussen Report. That support soars to 57% when respondents know it will "dramatically reduce the powers of bankers and the political class to steer the economy."
Now the political center is moving. Gov. Mitt Romney, who has my full and enthusiastic support as the GOP's presidential nominee, has said on record he is "happy to look at a whole range of ideas on how to have greater stability in our currency and in our monetary policy." His leading economic adviser, R. Glenn Hubbard, has devoted much of his recent book, "Seeds of Destruction," to rules-based monetary reform.
In Congress, Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Texas) recently introduced the Sound Dollar Act of 2012, and Sen. Mike Lee (R., Utah) introduced its Senate counterpart, the Federal Reserve Modernization Act. While each bill stops short of the real thing, which is a return to the gold standard, they are major first steps.
The political establishment will fight this idea viciously, because gold convertibility strips them of power and places the trump card over monetary policy with the people. If you thought the establishment attacked me over 9-9-9, wait until you see how they react to a classic gold standard. The vampires will be out in full force.
The debate over sound money has moved from whether we need it to how we get there. The pieces are moving in the right direction, and we have an opportunity to make the dollar once again as good as gold. Limiting Washington's power is a winner. Restoring prosperity is unifying. Joining forces behind bold solutions—engaging both gears of sound economic policy—will restore prosperity for generations to come.
Mr. Cain is a former chairman and CEO of Godfather's Pizza and a former chairman of the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The Law of Unintended Consequences

I don't usually like to post an article without commentary, but this time i will make an exception, because this is so good.  It deserves your attention.  It isn't really an article, but rather an interview with a new book I intend to read asap.   

America Is Out of Control

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Jim Manzi’s new book is a powerful indictment of political central planning.

Editor’s note: Jim Manzi is the author of “Uncontrolled: the Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society.” He is the founder and chairman of Applied Predictive Technologies, a global provider of predictive analytics software. Manzi is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor at National Review. He recently discussed his book with THE AMERICAN Editor-in-Chief Nick Schulz.

Nick Schulz: You come to the policy and political world from an atypical background – you were a software engineer and corporate strategy consultant and worked at AT&T labs. How did that experience come to shape your approach to public policy and politics?
Jim Manzi: We are all, to some extent, the prisoners of our experience. Like everyone, my experiences have surely created numerous biases to which, by definition, I am blind. But I have drawn some conscious lessons from my various jobs. Mostly, I suppose they relate to humility about how much harder it is to get anything done out there in the world than it seems like it ought to be when you read about it in a book or discuss it in a conference room.
“A huge question in front of us is how to predict the effects of proposed improvements reliably—they might sound good, but will they actually help or hurt when implemented?”
A good example is that I think that most mainstream economists radically underestimate the importance in any business of what in another context Carl von Clausewitz called "friction." Headquarters rarely knows what is going on in the field; people in frontline positions have little idea of the big picture, and react to local conditions as best they can; entrepreneurs are mostly making it up as they go, and so on. Economists are of course aware of this issue conceptually, but their attempts to incorporate it into their models of the firm and the economy are inadequate in the extreme. As compared to mainstream economic doctrine, therefore, I believe that uncertainty plays a far bigger role in real world decision-making, that quantitative models of the economy are less useful as guides to action, and that trial-and-error learning as embodied in existing institutions and practices is more important.
NS: This book is one of the most powerful challenges to progressive political impulses I’ve read in a while. You argue that “in the absence of experimental evidence we should have a rational status quo preference, and therefore place the burden of proof on those who advocate change.” But why should an unsatisfactory status quo be preferred to policy changes even in the absence of experimental justifications?
JM: The status quo is always unsatisfactory, and we should constantly seek opportunities for improvement. A huge question in front of us, however, is how to predict the effects of proposed improvements reliably—they might sound good, but will they actually help or hurt when implemented? The Law of Unintended Consequences is still in effect, and applies even to those proposed programs that are dearest to our hearts.
My argument is not that we should avoid reforms. To the contrary, it is that we should attempt many more potential reforms by trying them out on a small scale to see how they really work. This seems like a commonsense idea, but is not mostly how we approach policy today. In the book, I try to explain why, and propose some changes that I think would help us do more of it.
NS: Not a week goes by without a report of some new social or public policy program having beneficial effects to help, say, education, safety, health, and so on. But you say “we should be very skeptical of the claims of the effectiveness of new programs.” Why?
“The relevant issue is not why I am so insistent on experimental proof, but rather why social scientists have not demanded more of it themselves.”
JM: Well, about half of Uncontrolled is devoted to answering this question. If I were able to answer it succinctly and accurately, I would have written a much shorter book. But here are three straightforward reasons a non-specialist reader ought to be very skeptical of claims for some new program that has not yet been tested in replicated, controlled experiments:
First, note that successful scientific fields almost always demand experiments to test theories whenever practical. We subject new pharmaceuticals to clinical trials and new aircraft to test flights. It is true that some scientific fields, such as astronomy, cannot run controlled experiments, and that there are many social policy issues that are not practically subject to experimentation. But there are lots of important policy questions—Such as, does this new curriculum improve literacy? Does this new probation policy reduce crime? Does this new set of welfare eligibility rules reduce poverty?—that can be tested. In my view, the relevant issue is not why I am so insistent on experimental proof, but rather why social scientists have not demanded more of it themselves.
Second, the reason that successful sciences usually demand controlled experiments is that the world is complicated, and it's therefore very easy to fool ourselves into confusing correlation with causality. The regression models that are the typical non-experimental basis for most of the kinds of claims you cite consistently fail to establish the asserted causal relationship between the intervention and the outcome. They observe a relationship between the intervention and the outcome (e.g., "children who attend this special class score 10 points higher on this standardized test than those who do not"), but they are not able to do what they claim to do: "control for" other factors that might also influence the outcome. At root, this is because the datasets and analytical techniques they use may seem impressive, but they are very crude as compared to the complexity of human society.
Third, there have been some well-structured experiments that evaluate the actual impacts of proposed social programs. Almost all programs fail when tested. That is, the vast majority of new "education, safety, and health" programs that appear to work based on non-experimental analyses cannot demonstrate statistically significant benefits in excess of costs in replicated, controlled experiments. And those that do work usually create very small improvements. That ought to be pretty humbling to those who claim that this time is different, and now we really can be confident that we ought to roll out program X without testing it first.
“Potential ‘American decline’ is an active topic of conversation among policy intellectuals right now. But what I think this talk misses is that this decline has already happened.”
NS: Given the limits of social science for guiding public policy, you are a champion of federalism. You feel it gives political entities room to experiment and, through trial-and-error, learn more about what policies can work and what policies can’t and why. But the Founders created this system well before the limits of social science were known. How were they able to divine the wisdom of federalism?
JM: I don't know enough about that era to describe the motivations of each of the Founders. But even if they championed federalism for other reasons, we could still enjoy decentralized trial-and-error improvement today as a beneficial by-product. Brandeis, in the famous Supreme Court dissent in which he created the phrase "laboratories of democracy," referred to this benefit of federalism as a "happy incident." There is likely something to this, as the federal structure of the early American republic was surely in part a recognition of the political realities on the ground at that time.
NS: You live in Paris and London. Tell readers why; and does living abroad influence how you view politics in the United States?
JM: I have spent something like a quarter of my professional life outside the United States, living and working in the private sector across Europe, Asia, Australia, and Africa. My experiences have increased my already enormous feelings of affection, gratitude, and admiration for the United States, but have also increased my sense of American vulnerability.
Potential “American decline” is an active topic of conversation among policy intellectuals right now. But what I think this talk misses is that this decline has already happened. Living overseas makes this painfully obvious.
The United States was something like half of global GDP in 1945. This declined to around one-quarter of GDP by about 1980. Accepted wisdom and convergence theory agreed at that time that it should have continued to decline. But the deregulation (in the broadest sense) of the American economy that commenced around 1980 managed to retain about this share. During the period since 1980, European and other countries with high cultural affinity for America have been hemorrhaging share. The economic rise of the Asian heartland at the expense of the West is the primary geopolitical fact of our era.
“Datasets and analytical techniques they use may seem impressive, but they are very crude as compared to the complexity of human society.”
Looking at this from the outside, the political process in Washington seems disconnected from reality. In Washington, it's always 1945. Our almost casual disregard for the erosion of the foundations of our political economy—endless talk but little successful action on internationally uncompetitive K-12 educational results; a widely touted university system that produces more visual and performing arts graduates than math, biology, or engineering graduates; an immigration policy that all but ignores the need to upgrade our human capital; underinvestment in certain kinds of infrastructure, science, and technology; the relentlessly rising tide of social dysfunction among the majority of the American population that does not graduate from college; somehow convincing ourselves that we are uniquely responsible for maintaining global order, when we represent only about 25 percent of global economic output; a continuous trade deficit for more than 30 years; federal government debt of 70 percent of GDP, without any real prospect of achieving fiscal balance, never mind running the budget surpluses that would be required to pay it down, and so on—is shocking and profligate.
The United States can thrive in this new world, but is not destined to do so. In my opinion, it is unlikely to do so without a significant change in direction. Fortunately, I retain great faith in the regenerative capabilities of American society.
FURTHER READING: Scott Shane writes “The Boehner Uncertainty Principle.” Tino Sanandaji explains “Why Keynesianism Works Better in Theory Than in Practice.” Dan Blumenthal reveals “Why It’s Still a Unipolar Era.” Alex J. Pollock says “Uncertainty Is More Dangerous Than Risk; Error Is More Dangerous Than Fraud.” Steven J. Davis, Scott R. Baker, and Nicholas Bloom contribute “Business Class: Policy Uncertainty Is Choking Recovery.”
Image by Rob Green / Bergman Group

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Corporatism: a Bi-partisan Scourge

"Blaming Capitalism for Corporatism" (see full article copied below) by Nobel Prize winner Edmund Phelps is the best article I’ve read in a long long time.  This is not hyperbole.  Phelps' successful articulation of this subject is vital to the future of America.  The title of this article could just as easily have been “Blaming the Free Market for Coporatism.” 

A major problem for America is that both parties in our two party system favor “Corporatism” in one form or another because Corporatism leads to political donations.   Republicans rationalize Corporatism when it takes the form of subsidies because subsidies leave superficially private companies in place.  Thus, Republicans can have their cake and eat it too, they can avoid direct welfare programs like they have in Europe and they can talk the talk of free markets and capitalism, yet still enjoy the benefits of money politics. 

The problem here is that subsidies inevitably lead to pernicious distortions that undermine the proper functioning of markets.  When markets predictably fail due to distortions sown by subsidies, this, in turn creates the illusion that markets are fundamentally flawed requiring active intervention by government to fix them.  

We have massive subsidies in every major sector of the economy, including housing, green-energy, farm, health care, finance and banking.  This is a bi-partisan scourge. 

Banking and finance has the ultimate public subsidy in the form of the lender of last resort money printer: i.e. the Federal Reserve.    Of course, as is the typical case when Congress sells Corporatist innovations to the public, the Fed was ostensibly established to protect vulnerable households during economic down turns.   In fact, the real story of the Fed is that it was designed and ultimately established in what turned out to be a typical “Corporatist conspiracy” aimed at creating a bailout mechanism for big Finance (aka Wall Street) during business cycles.   

It is no wonder the recent Great Global Credit Crunch and Recession was a direct result of “failures” in some of the largest and most subsidized and regulated sectors of the economy:  housing, finance and banking.  Easy money provided by the Fed (as it was in the early 2000's) is the ultimate anti-capitalist subsidy because easy money undermines private property rights, which are fundamental to the functioning of "free markets."

Meantime, the so called health care crisis is another perfect example of subsidies being the hidden cause of what appears to be a so called failure of capitalism or of “free markets.”   Subsidies for Green Energy are the latest favorite form of Corporatism, and we all know how that will end.  We’ve already seen what happened with ethanol.  Obama promoted the idea of oil-from-algae technology as a way to solve the gas price crisis in a recent speech.  I can tell you how that experiment will end as well.  in utter disaster.

Paul Ryan's budget is a step in the right direction.  it eliminates many subsidies while lowering marginal tax rates.   The elimination of direct and indirect subsidies (including to Public and private Unions) that underpin our current Corporatist political economy will be politically difficult to unwind -- and that is the crux of the current political crisis:  will the political class be willing to cut subsidies when that means giving up its "Corporatist" funding sources?

Blaming Capitalism for Corporatism
Saifedean Ammous, Edmund S Phelps
PROJECT SYNDICATE
31 January 2012
NEW YORK - The future of capitalism is again a question. Will it survive the ongoing crisis in its current form? If not, will it transform itself or will government take the lead?
The term 'capitalism' used to mean an economic system in which capital was privately owned and traded; owners of capital got to judge how best to use it, and could draw on the foresight and creative ideas of entrepreneurs and innovative thinkers. This system of individual freedom and individual responsibility gave little scope for government to influence economic decision-making: success meant profits; failure meant losses. Corporations could exist only as long as free individuals willingly purchased their goods - and would go out of business quickly otherwise.
Capitalism became a world-beater in the 1800's, when it developed capabilities for endemic innovation. Societies that adopted the capitalist system gained unrivaled prosperity, enjoyed widespread job satisfaction, obtained productivity growth that was the marvel of the world and ended mass privation.
Now the capitalist system has been corrupted.
The managerial state has assumed responsibility for looking after everything from the incomes of the middle class to the profitability of large corporations to industrial advancement. This system, however, is not capitalism, but rather an economic order that harks back to Bismarck in the late nineteenth century and Mussolini in the twentieth: corporatism.
In various ways, corporatism chokes off the dynamism that makes for engaging work, faster economic growth, and greater opportunity and inclusiveness. It maintains lethargic, wasteful, unproductive, and well-connected firms at the expense of dynamic newcomers and outsiders, and favours declared goals such as industrialisation, economic development, and national greatness over individuals' economic freedom and responsibility. Today, airlines, auto manufacturers, agricultural companies, media, investment banks, hedge funds, and much more has at some point been deemed too important to weather the free market on its own, receiving a helping hand from government in the name of the 'public good.'
The costs of corporatism are visible all around us: dysfunctional corporations that survive despite their gross inability to serve their customers; sclerotic economies with slow output growth, a dearth of engaging work, scant opportunities for young people; governments bankrupted by their efforts to palliate these problems; and increasing concentration of wealth in the hands of those connected enough to be on the right side of the corporatist deal.
This shift of power from owners and innovators to state officials is the antithesis of capitalism.
Yet this system's apologists and beneficiaries have the temerity to blame all these failures on 'reckless capitalism' and 'lack of regulation,' which they argue necessitates more oversight and regulation, which in reality means more corporatism and state favoritism.
It seems unlikely that so disastrous a system is sustainable. The corporatist model makes no sense to younger generations who grew up using the Internet, the world's freest market for goods and ideas. The success and failure of firms on the Internet is the best advertisement for the free market: social networking Web sites, for example, rise and fall almost instantaneously, depending on how well they serve their customers.
Sites such as Friendster and MySpace sought extra profit by compromising the privacy of their users, and were instantly punished as users deserted them to relatively safer competitors like Facebook and Twitter. There was no need for government regulation to bring about this transition; in fact, had modern corporatist states attempted to do so, today they would be propping up MySpace with taxpayer dollars and campaigning on a promise to 'reform' its privacy features.
The Internet, as a largely free marketplace for ideas, has not been kind to corporatism. People who grew up with its decentralisation and free competition of ideas must find alien the idea of state support for large firms and industries. Many in the traditional media repeat the old line 'What's good for Firm X is good for America,' but it is not likely to be seen trending on Twitter.
The legitimacy of corporatism is eroding along with the fiscal health of governments that have relied on it. If politicians cannot repeal corporatism, it will bury itself in debt and default, and a capitalist system could re-emerge from the discredited corporatist rubble. Then 'capitalism' would again carry its true meaning, rather than the one attributed to it by corporatists seeking to hide behind it and socialists wanting to vilify it.
Saifedean Ammous is a professor of economics at the Lebanese American University and Foreign Member of Columbia University's Center for Capitalism and Society. Edmund Phelps, the 2006 Nobel laureate in economics, is Director of the Center.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Mandates Don't work -- Here is one good example

the underlying lesson (from article below):  government should think through unintended consequences of well meaning mandates.  the opposite side of the mandate coin is the government making some action illegal.

if "we" (society) want a certain behavior reinforced, we assume it is the governments responsibility to issue mandates; if we want to discourage some behavior or action we pass a law to make it illegal.  history is littered with well intended mandates and laws that lead to the very oppositie of the intended result.  consider prohibition for example.  Prohibition was aimed at eliminating evil alcohol from society.  the result was a boom in organized crime -- thousands if not millions of individuals suddenly found themselves on the wrong side of the "law" not only for trafficking in booze but in consuming it in speakeasies and behind closed doors. consider the war on drugs, which has led to results very similar to prohibition yet we don't admit it:   gang shootings.  organized crime.  proliferation of guns on the street.  and endless carnage in inner city.  and millions of otherwise law abiding citizens being criminalized for behavior they choose to pursue (e.g. smoking pot or snorting some lines at a party.)  I am not advocating drug use.  i don't do drugs myself or even drink alcohol (anymore), but i believe in each individuals right to make their own decisions about drugs.  
     ALSO, consider mandated health insurance or mandated automobile insurance.  the mandates and the laws don't work (see Massachussets for result of mandated health insurance);  mandates more often than not lead to negative unintended consequences, mandates criminalize behavior that should not be any business of government, and yet we keep doing the same thing over and over because it seems like we have no choice.  the moral position should be for politicians to "do no harm" first and foremost.   mandates and laws should not be enforced based on good intensions.  the road to hell is paved with good intensions.  look at the example of the wonderful idea of mandating school attendance until 18 years old.  sounds great, but in practice it leads to unintended consequences (for individuals being forced to attend school and those who are willingly there) and thus the result is to impoverish society in the end. 

Actually, we shouldn’t keep all students in high school until they’re 18

By James Pethokoukis
January 26, 2012, 11:55 am
 
Should teenagers be forced to go to high school? Here’s President Obama from the State of the Union speech on Tuesday:
We also know that when students aren’t allowed to walk away from their education, more of them walk the stage to get their diploma. So tonight, I call on every State to require that all students stay in high school until they graduate or turn eighteen.
Another idea that sounds good as a bullet point in a speech, but not so much in reality.
1. As the Los Angeles Times points out, 17 states already mandate compulsory education until age 18, including California. But the most recent figures show that 18.2 percent of California students drop out.
2. A 2009 study, also noted by the LA Times, by the Rennie Center for Education Research and Policy (the source of the accompanying chart) found such mandates ineffective:
The primary rationale behind raising the compulsory school attendance age to 18 is the belief that it will decrease the number of students who drop out and increase the number of students who graduate. However, our review revealed that there is little research to support the effectiveness of compulsory attendance laws in achieving these goals. As we have described, the evidence that does exist is dated. The research suggests that these laws had an impact on high school students in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s when the circumstances behind the decision to drop out were likely quite different than they are today. In addition, the findings themselves suggest that the impact of laws requiring students to stay in school until they are 18 has decreased over time.

3. In his must-read book Real Education, AEI’s Charles Murray (whose new book, Coming Apart, I will soon write about) notes that whatever the educational advantage of charter schools over government schools, they certainly succeed in providing students a safe and orderly classroom for those who want to learn. “The worst inner-city schools … contain classes in which competent teachers cannot be heard over the din … daily student-on-student and student-on-teacher altercations, frequent assaults … and the occasional assault with a deadly weapon.” In response, Murray offers a few basic rules:
1. Disruptive students are not permitted to remain in class.
2. Students who are chronically disruptive are suspended.
3. Students who in any way threaten a teacher verbally or physically are expelled.
Now, Murray realizes that “alternative schools” may not be able to absorb all the disruptive students and many may end up on the streets. But that may be a price we have to pay to reestablish order in our schools. And just how high a price is it really?
Students who are suspended are often learning nothing when they are in school — literally nothing … Nor are their hours in the school building keeping them out of trouble. The kinds of activities that get teenagers into trouble in the inner city (or anywhere else for that matter) do not usually take place from 8:00 a.m to 3:00 p.m. … Most of them are already on the street for all but a few hours of the day when they are preventing teachers and other students from learning. … The overriding priority for inner-city schools must be the children who are trying to learn. It is morally unacceptable to sacrifice their futures … just because we do not know how to reach the children who are not trying to learn.
Keep every kid in school no matter how disruptive they are? A perfect example of government creating a mandate without thinking through the unintended consequences.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

life isn't fair -- don't believe politicians who claim they can level the playing field

The Political Cowardice of Barack Obama

Soaring rhetoric won't fix the economy.


Do we really believe our enlightened politicians who promise free lunches as long as we follow their lead and everyone pitches in and we “work” together?  The source of America’s greatness is freedom NOT group think and compliance with a government vision.  America’s greatness can be traced to entrepreneurship, individual risk taking and creative and dynamic competition and cooperation.  The greatness of America is not in a deep and abiding faith in government to show us the way.  America has prospered despite government, not because of it.  Do we really believe "the" answer is to follow the wisdom of some Dear Leader (or anointed leadership) who points the way, and we all follow like sheep to the slaughter?   The appeals to collective sacrifice by our politicians is code for "do the right thing and trade individual liberty for (the promise of free lunches and) collective safety.”
Remember what ben franklin said about those willing to sacrifice liberty for security …  They don’t deserve either!
 
 Collective sacrifice is code for the government’s interest in securing and centralizing power inclugind regulatory power and power of the purse, both of which are MASSIVE powers.  Maybe our wise politicians believe that with such power they can fix society.  my cynical side believes that politicians have no real interest in saving society and instead are focused on designing new and clever ways to purse rent seeking activities.  most probably there are some do gooders out there.  But, it doesn't matter.  whether or not ones intensions are pure, the result of public policy is going to be a net negative for society.  

one reason we know this is that power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  We saw what happens when a great and moral man like Joe Paterno who has dedicated his life to the highest moral ideals accumulates too much power (even probably by no fault of his own) and is no longer subject to checks and balances.  If Joe Paterno is subject to the insidious and often invisible (even in hindsight) corrupting influence of power, who is safe?  Our politicians??  Is it only a matter of choosing the right politicians who will enforce “right” policies who will put our economy on a so called sustainable path? 

Handing over the hard work for fixing society to governments in the name of good morals is a total cop out.  We are brainwashed to believe that the only moral choice we have is to delegate the solving of social problems to our political leaders – because we assume only they have ability, and expertise and resources to do so. 

HOWEVER, I can guarantee that  the more confidence we put in our leaders in Washington DC, the more they will disappoint us. 

Local leaders who are sensitive to our needs and bound by checks and balances are a vital part of a functioning society.    government may play a critical role in ensuring sanctity and mutual respect of private property rights. 

The problem with centralizing power in the Federal government is that checks and balances are even harder to maintain than in local government.  and the power accumulated at the center is enormous.  We worry about monopoly in the private sector.  But what about monopoly power in the public sector??? 

Government power (as measured in size of assets and annual budgets) is orders of magnitude larger than even our largest companies like Microsoft or Google or Exxon.

How massive is the power delegated to our government via its monopoly over printing money for example??  What about the power of public unions in primary school system which block reform and turn the system into a piggy bank for teacher pensions and self interest.  Fiat money funding massive public debt accumulation paves the road to collective serfdom for our society.   Ultimately, government solutions entail a lose/lose result for society, resulting in accumulation of stifling debt loads as we see in Japan and Eurozone and in the US.    when public debt becomes overbearing for a country the result is pain one way or the other either via a debasing of currency (effectively a tax on private property – ending in the impoverishment of individual households and ultimately of wider society) or a debt deflation / depression spiral.

Money doesn’t grow on trees.  Life isn’t fair.  you’ll never hear a politician utter those words.  Politicians always promise win/win solutions.  If only you vote for me, I’ll make sure we have a cleaner environment AND a better economy.  Win/win solutions are fantasy.  The only free lunch in life is provided by the law of comparative advantage resulting from free exchange.  free exchange across society leads to the whole (social wealth) being greater than the sum of the parts.  Politicians can’t inject free lunches into society with enlightened policy.  we can’t reduce income inequality and at the same time improve the economy.  if there is a problem with income inequality it came from some previous government policy intervention. 

The market leads to a natural rate of income inequality.  If income inequality becomes stretched beyond some point where social tensions start to fracture society, the cause of that inequality is NOT the market.  a market based on private property rights and sanctity of free exchange and mutual respect for rule of law (not rule by man or arbitrary government fiat) leads to a society with a natural rate of income inequality. 

 How could it not?  Perfect equality suggests that everyone is equally poor, such as in North Korea.  There is no way to micro manage or reduce income inequality once government interventions cause a widening of income inequality via well intended policy.  Interventions to fix problems caused by well intended government policy in first place will just make things worse, either by slowing growth or by causing income inequality to stretch even further despite intention of policy measures aimed at fixing the problem.      

Do we really think that the government can invest in the future and create an “America built to last.”  The only thing government can create is an economy built to be more vulnerable to systemic collapse than it already was thanks to previous well intended government interventions such as our current fiat money central banking system.  Since the Fed was established in 1913, the dollar has lost 96% of its value, we’ve had the only Great Depression in the history of the modern world, we had an unprecedented era of stagflation in the 1970s, and we are currently in an unprecedented global recession.  Sure, we had 20 years of bull markets and economic stability, but we are paying the price for all of that now, with public debt up to our eyeballs in Japan, China, EZ and USA.  it is finally time to pay the piper.  The way forward is not going to be paved by government decisions about where to invest.  It will not be paved by government run public schools.  It won’t be paved by government subsidies for green energy or R&D. 

public subsidies distort the market, they distory the markets ability to allocate capital and they ultimately lead to booms, bubbles and eventually to busts as we have seen in every major sector of our economy, all of which are massively subsidized.  Consider housing (bubble- bust), banking (bubble – bust), financial sector (bubble-bust), public primary and secondary education (bubble as evident in per pupil cost of primary education and in annual tuition for college), health care (bubble – as evident in spriarling health care costs), green energy (bubble in ethanol, bubble in electric cars, etc etc).  such bubbles will eventually turn to bust.  govenrment solutions will just hasten the bust.  Obama offered some hair brained scheme to reduce college costs saying he will introduce a system where public subsidies will no longer go to colleges who don't lower their tuition.  how will this happen?  by magic??  output prices reflect input prices.  slapping a market incentive onto a subsidized system will not work.  

 We also have massive farm subsidies which has fueled the corn-based cheap beef fast food economy leading to obesity crisis.  If Michelle Obama wanted to help solve childhood obesity, she would lead the rollback of corn subsidies!!!  cheap corn is at heart of our fast food (cheap corn is fed to cows and we get cheap beef) and processed food society (corn syrup is in everything processed and is BAD for you).

The market has not failed us.  we have failed the market.  the market is imperfect. 

anyone who claims the market will fix all social problems given enough time is dreaming.  anyone claiming politicians can fix market failures are also dreaming.

there is no such thing as a market failure.  the market can't fail.  the market has unattractive features, but these are not failures per se that are capable of being fixed.  unattractive features are part of the natural landscape of life on earth, including natural disasters caused by weather, the earth system and the economy -- all of which are perfectly natural systems vulnerable to natural disaster.  earthquake, tsunami, business cycle.  they all are natural features of the world we live in.    do we want to try to eliminate hurricanes and earthquakes and business cycles.  what are possible unintended consequences of such intervensions? 
The market leads to income inequality, to business cycles, to inflation and deflation, to creative destruction dynamics which are often painful for individuals forced to change jobs.   the so called free market capitalism also leads to big companies that appear to have monopoly power (but never do), and it leads to pollution and occasionally to industrial accidents.  There are asset market bubbles and busts.  Free markets are no panacea for solving social ills.  Free markets are not fair.  there is no such thing as a level playing field in markets.  some people have innate advantages in their skills and in their starting spot in life. 

Free markets entail painful trade-offs.   Free markets will always entail a constellation of unattractive features.  However, these “features” are not BAD per se.  income inequality is an inherent feature of a free market.  income inequality is not a market failure per se.    can income inequality become so stretched that it causes social instability?  yes.  but the cause of such destabilizing income inequality is not the market.  the cause of increasing income inequality can always be traced to some constelation of well intended public policies aimed at fixing some other macro/social problem.  if we try to fix problems caused by some other previous policy intervention, we will just complicate things and trigger a new cascade of unintended consequences likely resulting in even worse income inequality or a lower growth rate for economy and equal impoverishment across society.  you can't make some wealthier without making society as a whole poorer.  no free lunches.  life isn't fair.


Reason Magazine

The Political Cowardice of Barack Obama

Soaring rhetoric won't fix the economy.

Now, a return to the American values of fair play and shared responsibility will help protect our people and our economy. But it should also guide us as we look to pay down our debt and invest in our future.—President Barack Obama, State of the Union, January 24, 2012
President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday night was the latest reminder that the state of political discourse in America is shockingly low. I’m not singling out Obama for special condemnation, given that these addresses always are a potpourri of banalities, regardless of which president is offering them. Yet Tuesday’s address was a vivid reminder of the shoddy thinking so common at the highest level of the federal and state governments and why we are—in the more precise, but less lofty words of a former president—in deep doo doo.
Criminologists have remarked on “the banality of crime,” the idea that most criminals are not dark geniuses, but ordinary dolts driven by the basest motives. The State of the Union is the ultimate example for the banality of American politics, of the reality that the people who want to reform us haven’t the slightest clue about anything. They are predictable and bland, traders in base ideas and driven mainly by ego and the desire to help those groups that assure their re-election. California is the starkest example. A friend of mine called the other day and told me that it finally dawned on him that Gov. Jerry Brown, despite his clever word plays is really not so brilliant. Here’s a man who actually believes that raising taxes and “investing” in green jobs will save California.
Politicians from Obama to Brown to Mitt Romney to Newt Gingrich want so desperately to build a legacy, save our state or nation, and create some shining city on the hall, but they want it all on the cheap. Democratic pols want to sound like John F. Kennedy while Republicans sing hosannas to the legacy of Ronald Reagan, but such legacies don’t come from cheap banalities and the retreading of empty words. They come from tackling real issues and fixing real problems. The courage needed to do the latter is in short supply, given that most politicians crave adulation but don’t realize that those who put that first almost assures that they won’t receive it. Look at Arnold Schwarzenegger, who had a historic opportunity to bring the state back from the brink, yet changed course dramatically after his first defeat. He chose to be loved above all else and has ended up a scorned figure.
Many of us had hoped that Brown, who no longer seeks higher office, would embrace the tough work of real governance and take on his own allies—i.e., the public sector unions—who are the key obstacle to reviving California. Instead, he has embraced one foolish answer, a massive tax increase, and has governed in a way that’s not too different from the two failed governors before him. If Brown were a serious man, he would acknowledge that it’s the way the state spends money that’s the problem, not the lack of revenue. But he has taken the easy, banal course and will in time be forgotten. And so too will Obama who continues to believe that government is the font of all wisdom and energy in this nation and that populist attacks on evil-doing mortgage companies are more crucial than serious policy.
“Let's never forget: Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a government and a financial system that do the same,” he intoned. “It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom. No bailouts, no handouts, and no copouts. An America built to last insists on responsibility from everybody.
Banality is one thing, but this veers into dishonestly. No president—not even the terrible one that preceded him—has embraced the culture of bailouts, handouts, and copouts more than Obama. His administration epitomizes the term “crony capitalism,” whereby friends of the leaders get large infusions of taxpayer cash (see Solyndra) and then are full of copouts about why the money disappeared. In his speech, Obama sung the praises of the automobile bailout and called for more bailouts and government investments.
Instead of dealing seriously with the financial crisis, he embraced a kindergartner’s view of what happened (greedy banks foisted bad mortgages on decent people!), called for a special investment crimes unit to crack down on financial wrongdoers, and then pledged a new bailout for homeowners who are underwater in their mortgages, many of whom acted irresponsibly as they bought houses they couldn’t afford and tapped the equity in those houses and spent it on consumer goods. Said Obama, “And while government can't fix the problem on its own, responsible homeowners shouldn't have to sit and wait for the housing market to hit bottom to get some relief. And that's why I'm sending this Congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low rates.”
Just what we need—yet another irresponsible subsidy courtesy of U.S. taxpayers. In reality, the real estate market needs to hit bottom before it can rebound, and Obama’s plan will only delay the day of reckoning. This is more pabulum and more false hope for people who think the government is going to save them.
Soaring rhetoric and promised bailouts won’t fix what’s wrong in California or in the United States. It’s time for a little reality and some tough choices. It’s time for leaders with less banal rhetoric, better ideas and more courage.
Steven Greenhut is editor of CalWatchDog.com.
This is title of Wonderful article copied below.  where is the articulation of trade-offs and tough choices by leaders of either party?